Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.789134 0.919947 1.065330 1.238847 1.440297 1.666810 1.940876
2025-01-12 0.551060 0.717255 0.922703 1.195201 1.547132 1.986425 2.576781
2025-01-19 0.424951 0.598009 0.828658 1.158259 1.617135 2.233583 3.125447
2025-01-26 0.359611 0.539225 0.793700 1.180037 1.751654 2.566582 3.818088
2025-02-02 0.326598 0.517295 0.802087 1.257590 1.967773 3.033289 4.755640
2025-02-09 0.291521 0.484996 0.787905 1.295556 2.125008 3.427576 5.631713
2025-02-16 0.258988 0.450696 0.764087 1.312221 2.246969 3.777293 6.477180
2025-02-23 0.229237 0.415923 0.733566 1.311565 2.337060 4.081834 7.281127
2025-03-02 0.202604 0.382282 0.699697 1.299108 2.402778 4.349420 8.050008
2025-03-09 0.182020 0.356366 0.675447 1.299434 2.489167 4.659890 8.928813
2025-03-16 0.158382 0.321246 0.629576 1.253028 2.482064 4.798196 9.502957
2025-03-23 0.153107 0.320984 0.649012 1.333326 2.724997 5.427898 11.086532
2025-03-30 0.134614 0.292011 0.609759 1.294321 2.731886 5.611987 11.831904
2025-04-06 0.117979 0.264651 0.570379 1.250188 2.723396 5.766081 12.540176
2025-04-13 0.104122 0.241233 0.535981 1.211613 2.720749 5.930129 13.287384
2025-04-20 0.097036 0.231839 0.530256 1.234385 2.853085 6.392458 14.734768
2025-04-27 0.094991 0.233710 0.549505 1.315473 3.125241 7.188410 17.021777
2025-05-04 0.090055 0.228020 0.550815 1.355167 3.307210 7.804470 18.972959
2025-05-11 0.084112 0.219028 0.543222 1.372591 3.438557 8.319500 20.749247
2025-05-18 0.077688 0.207902 0.529040 1.371905 3.525496 8.739450 22.345667
2025-05-25 0.071234 0.195793 0.510893 1.358881 3.579993 9.087397 23.806303
2025-06-01 0.066101 0.186468 0.498582 1.359222 3.668453 9.528639 25.557094
2025-06-08 0.059168 0.171272 0.469175 1.310703 3.623244 9.628192 26.433540